HOW TO SPOT High Probability Trades in 2024
It’s funny but I’m going back to my roots with trading. Last year I thought, let’s dish out all types of trades.
High probability and Medium Probability.
The result?
55% win rate. This is still considered very good for trading and one you can make a living with.
But there is a VERY big problem. Premium Members who have small portfolios of less than R25,000 – deal with the costs…
Costs are always higher when you have a small portfolio. And it’s because there are minimum costs with trades – Right?
So if the minimum cost is R150 (excluding interest daily fees) and you make R400 – then the difference is R250… Right? WRONG!
You need to pay a Leg in and a Leg out – which means you are NOT making much profit at all with a winning trade. And if you have a losing trade, then you’ll see it starts to add up.
So THE SOLUTION?
I have no choice but to resort back to High Probaility Trades. This yields on average a 65% – 71% win rate.
I want to find only the best trades for us to generate wealth from.
Hence, I sent you the NEW MATI Trader system – Indicators for 2024.
I have just built, customised, designed and programmed ONE MATI Trader Indicator. And you can add onto your chart today.
If you haven’t done so, DOWNLOAD THE QUICK GUIDE HERE BY CLICKING HERE.
HIGH PROBABILITY VS MEDIUM PROBABILITY TRADES
A high probability trade occurs when the market is MORE likely to work out and the odds are in your favour.
A medium probability trade occurs when the market has a LOWER chance and a reduced likelihood of the trade to work out in your favour.
Sometimes it’s good to pre-empt the potential moves in the market.
Purely for peace of mind and preparation.
In order to spot these High and Medium probability trades – there are 4 Scenarios.
To do this we’ll look at price with two moving averages.
20 SMA (Simple Moving Average) for short term
200 SMA (Simple Moving Average) for long term.
In order to spot these High and Medium probability trades – there are 2 scenarios for high probability trades and 2 scenarios for medium probability trades.
Scenario #1: HIGH Probability trade – Long (Buy)
When the market’s PRICE is ABOVE the 20 MA, and the price is ABOVE the 200MA my strategy leans towards going long (buying) a particular market.
This is because the overall trend is bullish and is up.
Scenario #2: HIGH Probability trade – Short (Sell)
When the market’s PRICE is BELOW the 20 MA, and the price is BELOW the 200MA my strategy leans towards going short (selling) a particular market.
This is because the overall trend is bearish and is down.
The verdict with High Probability Trades
We found through our highly back, forward and real-tested trades, high probability trades yield HIGHER returns with:
- Less LOSING trades.
- Less unnecessary trading costs.
- Less unnecessary holding fees overnight.
- Higher Return from these type of trades at the end of the year.
Scenario #1: MEDIUM Probability trade – Long (Buy)
When the market’s PRICE is ABOVE the 20 MA, and the price is BELOW the 200MA, this tells us that the market is LIKELY to be in a sideways consolidation range.
And so, one can go long (buy) the market with a medium caution that it might not work out to the upside.
Scenario #2: MEDIUM Probability trade – Short (Sell)
When the market’s PRICE is BELOW the 20 MA, and the price is ABOVE the 200MA, this tells us that the market is also LIKELY to be in a sideways consolidation range.
And so, one can go short (sell) the market with a medium caution that it might not work out to the downside.
The Verdict with Medium Probability Trades
We found that with medium probability trades, they yield LOWER returns overall due to:
- More LOSING trades.
- More unnecessary trading costs.
- More unnecessary holding fees overnight.
- Break even or small return by the end of the year.
You’ll see and learn that the journey through financial markets, needs more than just recognizing signals.
They require you to understand the essence of probability and risk management.
And with us being able to spot the high probability trades, we’ll have better chances and odds with the right alignment with market momentum – That these types of trades will work out MORE often than not.
THE SOLUTION!
We need to focus on HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES in the future.
According to the stats this will improve our odds by the following:
- Less trades per year – Less costs and carry fees.
- Around 68% Win rate trading system.
- Better clarity and focus on what to trade.
- Know when NOT to trade (Because we avoid the other trades)
With the NEW MATI Trader System Indicator, we’ll be able to spot HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES better and avoid MEDIUM PROBABILITY TRADES.
The proof is in the charts
Let’s look at a Medium Probability Trade and a High Probability Trade in action.
ILLUSTRATED: Medium Probability trade
ILLUSTRATED: Medium Probability trade
First we’ll wait for the pattern to form.
Then we’ll look to see if it is a HIGH probability or a MEDIUM probability trade.
That way we’ll know when and how to act!
Let’s sum up 2 scenarios to spot High Probability Trades VS Medium Probability Trades
Scenario #1: HIGH Probability trade – Long (Buy)
Price > 20MA and Price > 200MA
68% chance of winning
Scenario #2: HIGH Probability trade – Short (Sell)
Price < 20MA and Price < 200MA
68% chance of winning!
Scenario #1: MEDIUM Probability trade – Long (Buy)
Price > 20MA and Price < 200MA
55% chance of winning
Scenario #2: MEDIUM Probability trade – Short (Sell)
Price < 20MA and Price > 200MA
55% chance of winning
So are you ready to become a HIGH PROBABILITY TRADER and build your wealth with MATI Trader in 2024?
Trade well, live free.
Timon Rossolimos
Founder, MATI Trader
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Trade well, live free.
Timon Rossolimos
Founder, MATI Trader
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